Behind the Ceremony of Vladimir Putin's Delhi Visit: An Indo-Russian Relationship Which Has Diminished.
This rhetoric and imagery from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's most recent official trip to India projected a strong two-way relationship. Indian PM Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a embrace, and the leaders shared a ride together, mirroring a known political gesture. In his remarks, Modi called Putin as "a dear friend" and described the Indo-Russian connection as a "guiding star", built on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "stood the test of time". This was Putin's 10th visit to India over his 25-year tenure and his 20th meeting with Modi since the latter assumed office in 2014.
A Gap Between Pageantry and Reality
Yet, a significant disconnect exists between the symbolism and the actual content of this relationship. While Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are actually purchasing a reduced amount of Russian oil because of external pressure. The two countries concluded a series of agreements covering mobility, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and educational collaboration. But, anticipated announcements on significant defence contracts failed to come to pass. India has not concluded any substantial defence agreements with Russia since the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a trend fueled by holdups in shipments of platforms and components as Moscow focuses on its own wartime needs.
A Relationship Losing Strategic Weight
This all points to that the India-Russia dynamic no longer carries the identical strategic heft it previously possessed. In the Cold War, India enjoyed special trade terms and economic entry to the USSR and its allies. This privileged alliance reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded ahead of a war with Pakistan during which Islamabad was supported by the US and China. Although both countries have sought to preserve a semblance of this close bond through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership declared in 2010, the truth is that their engagement does not have the former significance as New Delhi has substantially strengthened relations with the West.
Diversification and Inherent Tensions
New Delhi is not expected to cut its important links with Moscow. But, as external pressure mounts on India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are seeking to broaden the partnership into other sectors. On Putin's visit, they announced an joint economic programme lasting until 2030, designed to make their ties "more diversified, equitable and long-lasting". This involves enhancing entry for Indian products to rectify a trade imbalance heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Collaboration between the two covers several strategically important sectors – from aerospace and nuclear energy to defence and agriculture.
Sentimental Affinity and Perceived Reliability
At an sentimental level, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, especially among older cohorts of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal support during the Cold War. This has resulted in a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. Amid recent frictions between India and the US, where American officials have issued sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a increasingly dependable ally.
This key difficulty, naturally, is the continuing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive declaration released during Putin's India trip contained no reference to Ukraine, even though it ironically described the relationship as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's often-repeated assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt actions regarding the conflict have been limited.
Navigating the Dilemma: New Delhi's Global Balancing Act
This situation does not belie the underlying contradictions in India's international stance. The nation is poised to conclude a trade deal with the EU, following a comparable pact with the UK this year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although moves are being made to strengthen cultural contacts between India and Russia.
How will India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that current peace negotiations will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of fighting and the removal of a key irritant in its relations with the West. However, should a settlement is achieved, if it falls short of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, scrutiny of the India-Russia alliance will undoubtedly persist in Western capitals.
