Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.