🔗 Share this article

Just two days prior to the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which election day turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent would have basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However the winner gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously went for the progressive now. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I wish he does so then none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners supported the independent. So there was some opposition. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.